Trends in disability-adjusted life years of lung cancer among women from 2004 to 2030 in Guangzhou, China: A population-based study.

Forecast of disease burden in lung cancer is an important health agenda. One of the main challenges is to predict the evolution of trends in disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of lung cancer so as to anticipate the future burden and to coordinate the supply of sufficient health services and care.Using 2004-2013 cancer registry data in Guangzhou, we fitted Bayesian age-period-cohort models with age, period, and cohort effects to analyze trends of lung cancer among women, and then made forecast for DALY of lung cancer until 2030.During 2004-2013, there was an annual average of 10,582 DALYs for lung cancer (15.84% of total DALY). In 2014-2030, DALY is expected to reach 234,752 person-years for lung cancer (12.25% of total DALY), with an annual mean of 13,809 DALYs. Lung cancer crude DALY rate is projected to rise steadily from 257.56 (95% uncertainty interval: 165.97-361.22) in 2014 to 316.99 (219.96-419.41) per 100,000 women in 2030, and the rise is mainly seen in 45-64 years age group. Lung cancer DALY rate remains the highest in the 65-89 years age group.Women at 65-89 years carry the highest lung cancer burden among other age groups in Guangzhou. The DALY rate of lung cancer is projected to increase most precipitously for the 45-64 years age group. This indicates that concerted efforts are needed to develop adequate cancer services, and to reassess health resources for control and care of lung cancer in these populations.